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3 May 2024
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News outlets and RBA watchers use a handy tool from the ASX to gauge market predictions for the RBA cash rate. Yet the tool has an obvious flaw that needs to be fixed to better reflect current monetary policy.
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
Australia's economy is in good shape after the extraordinary shift in global markets over the past 12 months, but here are nine macro and geopolitical factors for investors to check in a rapidly-changing world.
Investors often overlook the extent to which expected increases in cash rates are already built into longer-term rates. Bonds may be attractive even as cash rates rise if the market is assuming too much tightening.
Deputy Governor, Michelle Bullock, explained last week why the RBA bought $280 billion of bonds in its QE programme, but are we paying the price for this stimulus as rising inflation shocks central bankers?
Central banks need data and sources as up-to-date as possible, yet Australia's Reserve Bank sees a new CPI only once a quarter. And the US Fed's rate committee waits two months for its next meeting.
Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.
China is approaching a 'Lewis turning point' at the same time it faces a demographic time bomb with its rapidly-ageing 1.4 billion population. How it solves these problems will have a massive impact on Australia.
The outlook for emerging market debt in 2021 revolves around liquidity, uneven recoveries and debt sustainability. Damage has been done to many countries’ finances and watch for central banks withdrawing support.
Up, down or sideways? From disruption to de-globalisation, these six key themes will determine the sectors and companies that will do well in portfolios in coming years.
It's an election budget with money to spend, driven by income and company taxes. It again relies on China, so as the economy and global growth stalls, the long-term revenues are doubtful with spending locked in.
Residential aged care costs are difficult to understand at any time, but many aged care facilities are introducing new fees which make comparisons even more difficult as cost rise.
The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
How useful are the retirement savings and spending targets put out by various groups such as ASFA? Not very, and it's reducing the ability of ordinary retirees to fully understand their retirement income options.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.
The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.