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Consumer Sentiment|

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Global consumer and corporate resilience surprises everyone

Despite recession predictions, consumer activity and corporate earnings are holding up well. Global long-term interest rates probably peaked last October, and there are signs of corporate earnings re-acceleration.

Not so plastic fantastic: solving the single-use pandemic

At least 8 million tonnes of plastics leak into the ocean each year, equivalent to one garbage truck every minute. This is expected to double by 2030. Such pollution brings risks and opportunities for many companies.

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

What will stop the market returning to its highs?

Despite signs of optimism, market valuations are stretched and recovery is fuelled by government support. Some companies are doing well but stimulus cannot continue to prop up consumers for too long.

Investor sentiment can be highly misleading

Statistics measuring investor sentiment are often flawed but the market's reaction to such statistics is even more misguided. It's likely that shares will be sold more than justified when rates rise.

Fear factor should start the hunting season

The current level of fear in the market could be signalling a downturn or even another GFC. Investors should remember the lessons from the last crisis, and be in a position to take advantage of the next one.

Animal spirits dormant except for coffee and food

Current economic policy is failing to revive the corporate sector's animal spirits, as spending by consumers remains weak except for a few sectors like food, cafes and restaurants.

There’s too much confidence in confidence surveys

Confidence is important but can be misleading in terms of what is actually going on. Our emotions, which make us human, need to be balanced by facts, especially when we think times are grim.

Roy Morgan Research places SMSFs first for satisfaction

It's not surprising that research shows high levels of satisfaction for self managed portfolios, as investors are effectively rating themselves. Regardless of the reason, few SMSFs will return to an institutional fund.

'FOMO' is driving residential property prices, not yields

Like any investment, residential property must be bought at the right price and the right time, not based on the need to get into the market quickly due to the Fear Of Missing Out. And the costs will be higher than expected.

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2024/25 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 552 with weekend update

Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.

  • 21 March 2024

Why LICs may be close to bottoming

Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.

The public servants demanding $3m super tax exemption

The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.

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