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9 May 2024
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After more than a decade of pitiful yields, bonds are back offering better prospects for income investors. What are the best ways to take advantage of the market inefficiencies in Australian fixed income?
Market consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates well ahead of the RBA. The latest data has cast doubt on this, raising the prospect of an earlier RBA cut to prop up a faltering economy.
Brandywine Global's Richard Rauch warns of US and global recession risks, Vanguard's Duncan Burns on building a simple, effective investment portfolio, and Peter Warnes on the Australian market outlook for 2024.
ASX reporting season focuses on how earnings compare to forecasts, yet there's little mention of how dividends perform versus expectations. A new scorecard aims to rectify this to help income-focused portfolios.
What went up in 2020-21—cryptocurrency, commodities, real estate, and economic growth —has retreated in perfect sequence starting late 2021 and early 2022. Now it is inflation’s turn, though don't tell the Fed that.
By using data and technology, some companies are developing solutions to enhance their customers business and in the process expanding their own competitive advantages. Here are three industry leaders doing just that.
Payment of product commissions to financial advisers is banned in Australia, but the global Franklin Templeton CEO says it prevents some people from accessing needed advice. She also speaks about revaluing private assets.
The Australian fixed income landscape has changed with conditions now likely to provide many of the defensive attributes that investors have traditionally expected. Asset allocations should be reviewed to reflect this.
The Aussie dollar hit 80 US cents in late 2020 but has generally been in the 65-70 cents range for the last year. The exchange rate has a major impact on returns from unhedged offshore investments, so what's the outlook?
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
The market has erred by shunning growth companies indiscriminately. There are many growing businesses that enjoy strong free cash flow and robust balance sheets, including three US-listed large-cap companies outlined here.
A collection of interviews with financial markets experts on investing, superannuation, retirement and other topical issues, as published by Firstlinks over 2021 and 2022.
Investors often overlook the extent to which expected increases in cash rates are already built into longer-term rates. Bonds may be attractive even as cash rates rise if the market is assuming too much tightening.
It might not look this way at the moment, but secular stagflation, when the economy produces underemployment, low inflation, and low real and nominal interest rates, is more likely than the market is expecting.
Companies have been slow to update guidance and we have yet to see the impact of inflation expectations in earnings and outlooks. Companies need to insulate costs from inflation while enjoying an uptick in revenue.
Equity investing comes with volatility that makes many retirees uncomfortable. A focus on income which is less volatile than share prices, and quality companies delivering robust earnings, offers more reassurance.
Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.
Supply chain pressures highlight the important role and economic value created by companies working to make our infrastructure more efficient. We review two logistics companies that are well positioned to perform.
Among the myriad of numbers that bombard us every day, three prices matter greatly to the world economy. Recent changes in these prices help to understand the potential for a global recovery and interest rates.
Retirees require a reliable income stream to replace the wages they received when they were working and should focus on the dollar income generated over time rather than the headline yield percentage.
Best-in-class or ‘pure-play’ companies concentrate on one business really well, while companies with diverse operations lead to inefficient capital allocation and underinvest in the best opportunities.
The record run in house prices looks unsustainable but the outlook for Australian banks is for improving credit growth and earnings. For house prices to rise, the supply of credit must match demand from borrowers.
We do not agree with Treasury’s suggestion that institutional investors are overly influenced by the research provided by proxy advisors. Here's how active ownership works to serve the client's best interests.
One silver lining from changing COVID-19 societal behaviours is an unexpected pickup in Australia’s natural population growth rate, with early-stage pregnancy ultrasounds pointing to a baby boom ahead.
By now, we know 'growth' stocks have outperformed 'value' for many years and investors look to the future, but there are good reasons why the switch is on, especially as value companies emerge from the pandemic.
Fixed income opportunities beyond term deposits and hybrids remain scarce for retail investors, but active bond funds can access other securities where value is still available. Here are examples.
A diversified share portfolio should deliver 6% with franking, versus 1% on a term deposit. Should an investor accept the risk of shares during a recession and pandemic when interest rates are so low?
Falling dividends and the uncertain outlook deliver challenges for income generation, but a dual approach of short-term income and long-term sustainability should ensure a portfolio continues to perform.
It is always easier to see the challenges and risks while underestimating ingenuity and positive possibilities. It's likely to be the case this time, too, as long as we move quickly to open economies.
All crises are inherently different, but investor reaction to them is remarkably consistent. There's no evidence to suggest this has changed, which means there are importnt lessons from history.
The Total Return Investing approach is elegant, it makes intuitive sense and like many investment strategies, it backtests well. But low rates suggest the theory will not hold in future.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
How useful are the retirement savings and spending targets put out by various groups such as ASFA? Not very, and it's reducing the ability of ordinary retirees to fully understand their retirement income options.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.
Recently, I compiled a list of ASX stocks that you could buy and hold forever. Here’s a follow-up list of US stocks that you could own indefinitely, including well-known names like Microsoft, as well as lesser-known gems.
Debates about retirement tend to focus on the financial aspects: income, tax, estates, wills, and the like. Less attention is paid to the psychological challenges of retirement, which can often be more demanding.