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9 May 2024
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We investigate the pervasive but misunderstood price effects of stocks in the period surrounding their dividend payments. Known as “dividend run up” (DRU), we observe a positive excess return from tilting towards dividend paying stocks in the month (or slightly longer) prior to the ex-date. There are two separate effects to consider: the cum-dividend price run up, and the ex-dividend price drop off.
Note that this effect is often thought to be a tax effect specific to Australia. Investors who hold stocks that pay franked dividends in theory “go on strike” from selling for 45 days surrounding the dividend ex-date, in order to capture the franking credit along with the cash dividend. This creates price pressure which drives up prices. While this supposition appears to be at least partly true, the same effect manifests itself in unfranked dividend payers in Australia, and in many other markets around the world. There is more to this than just maximising dividends and franking. Note that this paper looks only at Australian stocks. Later work will extend it to other markets around the world.
Download the full paper
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
How useful are the retirement savings and spending targets put out by various groups such as ASFA? Not very, and it's reducing the ability of ordinary retirees to fully understand their retirement income options.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.
Recently, I compiled a list of ASX stocks that you could buy and hold forever. Here’s a follow-up list of US stocks that you could own indefinitely, including well-known names like Microsoft, as well as lesser-known gems.
Debates about retirement tend to focus on the financial aspects: income, tax, estates, wills, and the like. Less attention is paid to the psychological challenges of retirement, which can often be more demanding.
If you’re like me, you may have put money into term deposits over the past year and it’s time to decide whether to roll them over or look elsewhere. Here are the pros and cons of cash versus other assets right now.
There's been little debate on how spending changes as people progress through retirement. Yet, it's a critical issue as it can have a significant impact on the level of savings required at the point of retirement.
Every year, millions of dollars are spent on legal fees, and thousands of hours are wasted on family disputes - all because of poor estate planning. Here's a guide to a key part of estate planning - making an effective will.
As the world shifts away from one of artificially suppressed interest rates and cheap manufacturing, investors will need to carefully consider how companies are positioned to navigate the new higher-cost paradigm.
2024 looks set to be another year of reflation and geopolitical uncertainty — with the latter significantly raising the tail risk of a return to problematic inflation. That’s a supportive backdrop for commodities.
It's no secret that Australian commercial property has endured its most challenging period since the GFC. Yet, there are encouraging signs that the worst may be over and industry returns should improve in the medium term.
Allan Gray's Simon Mawhinney thinks two groups with huge influence over our public companies often fall short of helping shareholders. In this interview, Mawhinney also talks boards, takeovers, and active investing.