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Tim Congdon

Falling money supply points to recession, and maybe severe

There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.

Tim Congdon warned us and we ignored him on inflation

In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023? 

How long will the bad inflation news last?

The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.

Magic money printing and the reality of inflation

It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.

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Exploiting Warren Buffett

Growth investors are using Buffett to justify buying blue chip stocks at almost any price. It’s a recipe for potential disaster, as investors in market darlings like CBA and Cochlear may be about to find out.

Property

Population density trends and what they mean for housing

With Australia’s population moving through the fastest rate of growth since the 1950s, our cities and towns are naturally densifying. This is a look at the latest trends and how they will impact the property market.

SMSF strategies

The ultimate superannuation EOFY checklist 2024

We're nearing the end of the financial year and it's time for SMSFs and other super funds to make the most of the strategies available to them. Here's a 24-point checklist of the most important issues to address.

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The outlook for Nvidia, from a long-time investor

Nvidia has taken the world by storm and is now the third largest stock on the planet - larger than Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet. Here is the latest take on Nvidia from a fund manager who first invested in the company in 2016.

Economy

Gross National Happiness?

Despite being richer, surveyed measures of happiness have been flat to falling in Australia. Some suggest we should focus less on GDP and more on broader measures of wellbeing, though there are pros and cons to that approach.

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The power of dividends

In an era where growth companies dominate and the likes of Nvidia grab all of the attention, dividend paying stocks are flying under the radar. Some of these stocks offer compelling prospective returns.

Fixed interest

The best opportunities in fixed income right now

After more than a decade of pitiful yields, bonds are back offering better prospects for income investors. What are the best ways to take advantage of the market inefficiencies in Australian fixed income?

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