Stocks are vulnerable if interest rates rise much faster than expected on inflation concerns. What is the probability of this heightened risk and what are the consequences for portfolios?
Tag Archives | US economy
Even the experts concede that the more you know, the less you can be sure. Donald Trump is playing a game of brinkmanship with the trade wars, and it could end badly. Or not.
Australian credit markets have had a good run, and any investor tempted to exit the sector should consider whether a move now is too early in the cycle. A period of range-bound stability is the more likely outcome.
President-elect Donald Trump divides opinion, and there is no way of knowing whether the rhetoric that won him the top job will translate into action. Here’s a quick look at some implications.
Many people have been quoting the Australian shares return for FY2015 as 2.4%, but that is only the price index. The accumulation index is up a healthy 7.1%. All asset classes generated returns well above inflation and cash rates.
It’s too easy to think the future will be a simple extrapolation of the recent past. Just because inflation has been well under control in recent years doesn’t mean we should ignore the inflation risks.
Unemployment and inflation seem to be heading in different directions in Australia and the United States, but the outcomes for interest rates and equity markets might be the same.
Secular stagnation can result from a sustained lack of demand or low growth in productivity, and can create low or negative investment returns. Could this happen in Australia?
A positive view on US growth but some concerns around possible inflation effects and the unwinding of QE. Growth may give a tailwind but it is rarely the most important factor determining market returns.