In some markets, the sheer volume of money flows into both good and bad companies, but when tougher conditions inevitably come, it’s the quality earnings that sustain.
Tag Archives | market cycles
As he prepares for retirement, a Chief Investment Strategist from a major global fund manager summarises what he has learned working through five full business cycles. He says it’s time to take risk off the table.
The long bull market allowed passive investing to prosper, but over a whole cycle, companies with better fundamentals will outperform weak ones. The market is finally showing some dispersion.
Everyone’s calling for the end of the long bull-run in equities. But we don’t know if the end is a few months or a few years away, and technological change is so vast that historical lessons need to be tempered.
Long-term earnings matter the most to stock prices over the long run. Trying to time short-term fluctuations is folly, but we can pick the times when movements are disharmonious with earnings.
What is it about shares that most investors want to buy as they become more expensive, then sell when the price falls? We don’t do that with other goods. There are four main choices when reacting to a market fall.
Telling investment stories in the form of a fable or parable is a great way to overcome the reluctance of many inexperienced investors to think about saving.
Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.
Australia has enjoyed a remarkable 25 year run without a ’recession’, but our stockmarket has badly lagged the US in recent years, and company earnings are still some 30% below the level of 10 years ago. Will it improve soon?