Inevitably, with each new development in this cycle, investors as what they can do to prepare for a recession. Our answer: revisit asset allocation, diversify, and review active risks in your portfolio.
Tag Archives | economic cycles
Many experts are warning that over the past 60 years, the yield curve has inverted in advance of every recession, but will a yield curve inversion have a different result this time?
Australian credit markets have had a good run, and any investor tempted to exit the sector should consider whether a move now is too early in the cycle. A period of range-bound stability is the more likely outcome.
Since the 1950s, predictions on the death of economic cycles have come and gone, and each time they have been wrong. But since no two cycles are the same, we ought to look for what’s different this time.
Too many variables affect the market and economies, and most are unforeseeable or overly complex to understand. Instead of wasting time on such macro issues, it’s better to focus on your investment edge.
Promoters of different investment structures obviously extol the virtues of their own products and highlight the weaknesses of others. What’s interesting is that a weakness can also be a strength.
Fundamental indexing is now well-established in Australia, but has recently underperformed cap-weighted indexes. What is the longer-term outlook and rationale?
Long term investors look forward to market-wide falls because good companies are sold off along with the rest. It gives a chance to buy into companies that were previously considered too expensive.
In part 2 of Who Wins? we look at an Australian investor holding US shares compared with an investment in the local market, plus the relationship between inflation and exchange rates.
A study of Australia’s stock market returns for Australian investors versus the returns from the US stock market for US investors uncovers some interesting trends. Where do the returns come from in each country?
Most trend-following funds (managed futures or CTAs) have performed poorly recently, and investors are asking if they will work again. History shows how crisis and non-crisis periods influence this investment style.
Over the last two years, small caps have underperformed their large cap rivals in Australia, which goes against the global historical trend. Where has our small cap additional performance gone and will it return?
Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.
The Federal Government should run balanced budgets over the economic cycle, otherwise uncertainties build up and costs are imposed because the bills still have to be paid somehow.
Every super fund member fears a downturn, but with an expected working life of 45 years and retirement of 30 years, we need to look beyond the short -term. A look at stock market cycles helps with the long-term view.
Who is the greatest market analyst of all time? Towering above all is Mark Twain with his immortal line: “no occurrence is sole and solitary, but is merely a repetition of a thing which has happened before, and perhaps often …”