The ‘founder’ mindset of an astute investor

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Investing is about understanding businesses and as with all things business-related, nothing is ever clear-cut. Businesses are comprised of a set of strategies which have been selected and implemented by management. However, no one can guarantee the success of a business strategy – not even management themselves. So what hope does an investor have?

In this article I’ll explore the characteristics of a certain type of investor who holds an advantage. I’ve termed them the ‘entrepreneurial investor’.

Business owners think differently

In 1947, Benjamin Graham coined the term the ‘enterprising investor’. He outlined how an edge could be gained by delving deep into the numbers to determine the true underlying value of a business. But that edge is harder to find these days. There are simply less cigar butts and more people looking for a free puff. It’s a tough game if you’re relying only on that strategy.

So, if studying the numbers won’t give you an edge, what will? One of the answers I believe, lies in the saying ‘walking a mile in one’s shoes’. If you’ve ever run a business or grown a business, big or small, you have an edge over those that haven’t. You are an entrepreneurial investor. You possess an understanding of business that can’t be appreciated through research alone. As important as the numbers are, they are only the first step of analysis. What’s more important is being able to judge which numbers are important and knowing when to use intuition.

So, put yourself in the shoes of a founder – someone focused solely on growing the business over the long term. What truly matters to you and how you operate your business will be drastically different to a fly-in CEO chasing a bonus.

If you haven’t owned a business or run a business, all is not lost. You just need to understand a few principles of how good business owners think, then apply them in your judgement as an investor.

Seeing opportunities when conservative investors don’t

Running and growing a business involves the optimisation of multiple levers, such as decisions about the best allocation of fixed resources for maximum long-term return. If you have been in that position, you will know what constitutes good capital allocation.

I’ll illustrate this by way of a real-life example of a company we are currently tracking.

Consider a dominant furniture retailer going through a transition period. After many years of leading the market, lower consumer sentiment has led to a recent decrease in sales. In addition, customers are increasingly heading online for homewares. Investment analysts have punished the stock for its recent earnings decreases. In response to the evolving market, the founding family and majority shareholder recently appointed a new CEO with a mandate to spend significant resources on a new digital online store. This expenditure has led to an even greater short-term cost blow out.

Conservative investors would steer clear of this investment. On the surface it seems like a dinosaur industry set for extinction. Investors would look instead for the ‘safe’ cash cow blue chip that pays a high yield.

However, for entrepreneurial investors, this represents a clever investment opportunity. Sentiment is low and the stock has not been this cheap for many years. The significant investment in the online store is a shrewd move by the founders. The direction towards digital distribution has been managed prudently and early results are promising. The once-off investment cost has masked the imminent turnaround and transition opportunity.

Entrepreneurial investors understand that allocation to growth projects is not optional, it is a necessity. Risk is part and parcel of improvement. Improvement is not a choice; if you’re not improving, you’re a sitting duck. What’s most important is that the allocation of capital to this project is thoughtfully considered and prudently managed. Look for favourable risk/reward trade-offs even though conservative investors may see differently.

Betting on moats, not news

Anyone who’s started their own business venture knows that new initiatives take time. Usually longer than anticipated. Jeff Bezos of Amazon, one of the world’s most successful founders, outlines his thinking on results,

“Today I’m working on a quarter that is going to happen [three years from now]. Not next quarter. Next quarter for all practical purposes is done already and it has probably been done for a couple of years.”

For most fundies, Bezos’s three-year time frame is too long. A fundie could change careers multiple times in that period. Fundies need to pick up quick results and so they favour a quarter-to-quarter game of news arbitrage. It relies on betting on news announcements, rather than betting on business moats. For investors to truly bet on a business moat, they need to allow ample time for the growth initiative to crystallize.

One such business I visited recently in Japan transformed itself from a printing company into a data provider. They now dominate the Japanese food industry – a slow moat-building process which has taken them 10 years to establish. Initially starting by digitising print data for their customers, they developed software that now owns the pricing data of the Japanese food advertising market. It is difficult for competitors to cross the moat.

Some strong Australian examples

Business owners understand the power of human nature. People, when aligned and motivated, can achieve great things. Drive, heart and nous are the most important things in a business but are instead often overlooked in favour of well-credentialed management teams with little vested interest.

When Warren Buffett took over Berkshire Hathaway, it was a struggling textiles business. Although you wouldn’t have backed the original textile business itself, you would have backed Buffett’s ability to change the core business.

Australian visionaries Roger and Andrew Brown (ARB Corporation), David Teoh (TPG Telecom), Andrew Hansen (Hansen Technologies), Frank Lowy (Westfield), Barry Lambert (Count Financial), and Graeme Wood (Wotif.com) have been the heart and soul behind their companies. These founders have demonstrated an incredible ability to compound shareholder wealth, i.e. their own wealth. Those who have invested alongside them have been repaid handsomely. They’ve all demonstrated a shrewd ability to take calculated risks and look for hidden opportunities.

Entrepreneurial investors understand that backing the right people is just has important as backing the right business. To do this sensibly, investors need to ensure there is genuine motivation and desire to further the growth of the business for the long term.

For this reason, we favour investing in founder-led companies

Investors with experience owning and running their own business have an edge over the typical conservative investors. They are ‘entrepreneurial investors’. They’ve been in the shoes of management. They know what’s important and they’re comfortable backing the right people with carefully considered strategies. They recognise that business success requires continual improvement and calculated risk-taking. By drawing on this experience and combining it with financial analysis, they have more strings to their bow than the typical conservative investor.

Happy compounding.

 

Lawrence Lam is the Founder of Lumenary, a fund that uncovers the best founder-led companies in the world. We invest in unique, overlooked companies in markets and industries beyond most managers’ reach. The material in this article is for general information only and does not consider any individual’s investment objectives.

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2 Responses to The ‘founder’ mindset of an astute investor

  1. Lawrence February 9, 2019 at 12:01 AM #

    Investors should be wary of IPOs in general. Agree it’s hard to determine if a founder is a ‘stayer’ or a ‘flipper’.

    But why invest in IPOs? Plenty of great companies with founders that have extensive long term track records post IPO.

    But if you have to go down the IPO path, the prospectus usually shows how the new shareholding structure will look. That will tell you the motivations of the founder.

    Happy compounding.

  2. Alex February 8, 2019 at 3:42 PM #

    But in an IPO, difficult to know if the ‘founder’ is taking the opportunity to cash in their chips.

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