Market performance has changed since late 2018, but have the facts?

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Hope is not an investment thesis

Investor pain in the final quarter of 2018 has seemingly faded from memory, based on the rerisking across global equity and credit markets in the first two months of 2019. This prompts the question: Were investors too pessimistic then or are they too optimistic now? To my mind, the answer is yes to both. The real answer is that the market suffers from recency bias — the tendency to remember recent events better than those that happened earlier — and it tends to get whipsawed by nonmaterial information. Have the facts materially changed since last quarter to cause such volatility? Let’s review.



The comments, opinions and analysis contained in this document are for general information purposes only and are not investment advice or a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any investment. Comments, opinions and analysis are rendered as of the date given and may change without notice due to market conditions and other factors. This article is issued in Australia by MFS International Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 68 607 579 537, AFSL 485343), a sponsor of Cuffelinks.


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