One of Australia’s senior economists expects local cash rates to remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020, and consumer spending looks weak. By 2020, US growth may be down below 2%.
Stocks are vulnerable if interest rates rise much faster than expected on inflation concerns. What is the probability of this heightened risk and what are the consequences for portfolios?
Technological innovation is transforming industry. Asia is where much of it is happening. But traditional portfolio approaches need amending to take full advantage of opportunities in the tech-enabled sector.
Even the experts concede that the more you know, the less you can be sure. Donald Trump is playing a game of brinkmanship with the trade wars, and it could end badly. Or not.
Many experts are warning that over the past 60 years, the yield curve has inverted in advance of every recession, but will a yield curve inversion have a different result this time?
Before the GFC, many experienced market professionals forgot about risks such as liquidity, and did not do the research needed to minimise the problems. It will all happen again.
As interest rates fell in recent years, there was a push into emerging markets debt, but as worldwide central bank stimulus reduces, many of these ’emerging’ countries are showing why they are poorly rated.
If you’re still getting your head around blockchain, read this quick summary on the potential of distributed ledgers. The technology is not without problems but cannot be ignored.
Many experts expected the Aussie dollar to fall rapidly when US rates rose above Australian rates, but the fall has been modest. What factors are holding it up and what’s the outlook?
Market risks are skewed to the downside for the next 12 to 18 months, and if the Federal Reserve is forced to counter inflation, a 30% broad-based correction in equity markets is a possibility.
Sovereign Wealth Funds control hundreds of billions of dollars of investments, and how they change their asset allocations can affect prices across listed and unlisted markets.
The fundamentals point toward bankruptcies of major sovereigns like the US and Japan in the next decade. The after effects could be catastrophic on all major asset classes. It’s time to discuss the makeup and costs of insurance.
Over the next few decades, average life expectancies as well as healthy outlier human lifespans could rise substantially due to medical engineering and gene modification. Aging is now better understood than ever before.
Income taxes in Australia are over 2.5 times larger than the ‘spending’ taxes such as GST, excise, and stamp duties. The latest legislation ignored reforms in taxing spending over saving again.
Consumers are now having a bigger impact on China’s economic growth to the benefit of multinationals, but foreign companies can face boycotts when pursuing Chinese consumers.
Australian credit markets have had a good run, and any investor tempted to exit the sector should consider whether a move now is too early in the cycle. A period of range-bound stability is the more likely outcome.