For value investing to remain a rational strategy, mean reversion must hold true, which requires supportive economic conditions. But historical ranges are not relevant to companies losing market share.
Political outcomes are challenging to predict. Instead, we need to focus on the investment implications of a variety of policy outcomes. A long term perspective is where valuation intersects with fundamentals.
Inevitably, with each new development in this cycle, investors as what they can do to prepare for a recession. Our answer: revisit asset allocation, diversify, and review active risks in your portfolio.
Total returns from the local stock market have averaged 10.5% per year since Federation, with 12% p.a. under right-leaning governments and 8% p.a. under left-leaning governments. But it’s mainly luck.
Both the Government and Labor have made impressive commitments to infrastructure, but it focusses heavily on roads and rail. Australia’s economic potential depends on more essential services.
It’s an election budget with money to spend, driven by income and company taxes. It again relies on China, so as the economy and global growth stalls, the long-term revenues are doubtful with spending locked in.
In the 2019/2020 Federal Budget, the Government made few changes to superannuation rules to assist retirement planning.
In our Federal Budget 2019/20 coverage, we present summaries and analyses of the Budget from Cuffelinks’ sponsors, including newsletters and videos, plus a summary of Labor’s overall strategy.
The Budget surplus in the 2018-19 year is mainly due to fortuitous tax revenue gains from the mining boom. In the past five years, government spending has risen by an incredible 21%.
A one-off payment to assist with rising energy bills will be paid to almost four million Australians before the end of the 2018-2019 financial year (assuming legislation passes), but who qualifies?
Sections of the superannuation industry presented a wishlist to Government for the 2019 Budget. How many changes made it into Josh Frydenberg’s document? None of the significant ones.
Howard Marks distills a lifetime of investing into his new book, and perhaps as a sign that he has really mastered the market cycle, he has just sold a majority stake in Oaktree to Brookfield.
A global investment strategist looks at why this cycle may be different, and examines the potential invested yield curve for hints from the past.
After a year of analysing financial services like it has never been done before, the RC Final Report was released today with 76 recommendations which are expected to be adopted. What will change?
In some markets, the sheer volume of money flows into both good and bad companies, but when tougher conditions inevitably come, it’s the quality earnings that sustain.
In his latest memo to clients, Oaktree’s Howard Marks quotes the popular ‘beer’ example to explain the tax system, and we reproduce it here.