Let’s face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia’s most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something’s got to give.
Author Archive | Roger Montgomery
Uber is the largest loss-making startup in history, and while investors will climb aboard the IPO and return money to early investors, the stockmarket will eventually realise there is no identifiable path to Uber profitability.
The biggest concern that many analysts ignore is that, after house prices begin falling, the savings ratio climbs, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence, leading to a rapid slowdown in the economy.
Most investors think the relationship between interest rates and prices only applies to fixed rate bonds, but the rate impact on discounting future cash flows applies to all income-producing assets.
All aspects of media and broadcasting are changing, and in television, there are so many new ways to reach viewers that traditional players may be in an unavoidable death spiral.
The coming of 5G will herald a communication and internet revolution, but the benefits to consumers and society will not automatically translate to huge profits for providers and suppliers. Who will win?
Many new ‘disruptive’ businesses are simply older-style businesses dressed up, and even if it’s an attractive and ultimately profitable new space, competitors will join the party.
Fairfax and Nine together will not magically produce a great company. The business models of newspapers and free-to-air TV are compromised by giants in digital and media industries, and viewing habits have changed.
Central banks have created surplus capital looking for a home, and Tesla is a classic example of an unprofitable tech company that has benefited. It survives on a dream rather than the ability to make cars.
Markets and assets look expensive, but technology at least offers high revenue growth and fast rates of adoption. However, much of that great promise may benefit consumers more than investors.
Market fundamentals are pointing toward an era of high volatility and lower returns, which have not been factored into current prices. Better to wait till there is blood in the streets rather than be fully invested.
In today’s investment markets, has value investing lost its relevance or did the recent market volatility provide a warning? Value investors need patience and a contrarian attitude, which tests the resolve in strong markets.
It’s pleasing to have been contributing to Cuffelinks since the start in 2013. Fundamentally sensible and technically useful articles again dominated in 2017, but five in particular stay in the memory due to their special insights.
Don’t extrapolate success without anticipating new ideas and competition. When consolidation of media power, personal data, or capital is concentrated in a few companies, society repels and rejects.
NAB’s latest announcement shows we are at a critical turning point with technology replacing jobs, and Australia lacks the political will to drive innovation and avoid declining living standards.
Argentina’s economic history shows there’s no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.