Many new ‘disruptive’ businesses are simply older-style businesses dressed up, and even if it’s an attractive and ultimately profitable new space, competitors will join the party.
Author Archive | Roger Montgomery
Fairfax and Nine together will not magically produce a great company. The business models of newspapers and free-to-air TV are compromised by giants in digital and media industries, and viewing habits have changed.
Central banks have created surplus capital looking for a home, and Tesla is a classic example of an unprofitable tech company that has benefited. It survives on a dream rather than the ability to make cars.
Markets and assets look expensive, but technology at least offers high revenue growth and fast rates of adoption. However, much of that great promise may benefit consumers more than investors.
Market fundamentals are pointing toward an era of high volatility and lower returns, which have not been factored into current prices. Better to wait till there is blood in the streets rather than be fully invested.
In today’s investment markets, has value investing lost its relevance or did the recent market volatility provide a warning? Value investors need patience and a contrarian attitude, which tests the resolve in strong markets.
It’s pleasing to have been contributing to Cuffelinks since the start in 2013. Fundamentally sensible and technically useful articles again dominated in 2017, but five in particular stay in the memory due to their special insights.
Don’t extrapolate success without anticipating new ideas and competition. When consolidation of media power, personal data, or capital is concentrated in a few companies, society repels and rejects.
NAB’s latest announcement shows we are at a critical turning point with technology replacing jobs, and Australia lacks the political will to drive innovation and avoid declining living standards.
Argentina’s economic history shows there’s no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.
At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.
The consequences of renewable energy disruption will be strongly felt by the Australian sharemarket with the falling contribution from existing energy and resource companies.
Despite most Australian shares trading above intrinsic value, investors’ risk perceptions are lower than they should be. Without profit growth, equity returns will be low, especially if the entry share price is elevated.
The stock market is increasingly looking like a ‘barbell’ of company returns with a few big winners and lots of losers, especially in retailing where new competition led by Amazon is nothing less than a seismic change.