Each time share markets sell off suddenly, investors need to ask whether it’s a real crisis or a false one. Here are some current issues to consider amid the optimism that has pushed markets in 2019.
Author Archive | Don Stammer
Many experts expected the Aussie dollar to fall rapidly when US rates rose above Australian rates, but the fall has been modest. What factors are holding it up and what’s the outlook?
Since the 1950s, predictions on the death of economic cycles have come and gone, and each time they have been wrong. But since no two cycles are the same, we ought to look for what’s different this time.
Telling investment stories in the form of a fable or parable is a great way to overcome the reluctance of many inexperienced investors to think about saving.
Instead of automatically reacting to fake crises, a better approach is to weigh up the pros and cons first. If the news proves to be correct, take action based on your risk tolerance.
Australians love owning dividend-paying shares, especially with the added benefits of franking credits, and the rewards from owning shares should not be judged in terms of price movements in isolation.
Statistics measuring investor sentiment are often flawed but the market’s reaction to such statistics is even more misguided. It’s likely that shares will be sold more than justified when rates rise.
Productivity growth has slowed, and if it persists, it’s another sign that future investment returns will disappoint and fiscal imbalances will persist. There are strategies that might counter the worst effects.
Learning about investing is a long journey and the recent period of market turbulence offers valuable lessons in the way markets behave.
Investors need to be aware of what’s happening to productivity and how this will affect future returns and the affordability of tax-payer funded pensions, especially if company profits fall.
It’s too easy to think the future will be a simple extrapolation of the recent past. Just because inflation has been well under control in recent years doesn’t mean we should ignore the inflation risks.
Secular stagnation can result from a sustained lack of demand or low growth in productivity, and can create low or negative investment returns. Could this happen in Australia?
Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its QE policy, liquidity in developed economies will remain abundant with the major central banks adding another USD1 trillion in 2014. But watch for global inflation.
Let’s celebrate the positive effects of a floating exchange rate and the way it adjusts to make economic policy more effective. With some exceptions, a floating currency acts as a shock absorber to cushion volatility.
Around the world, real interest rates are now unusually low or even negative. The hunt for real yield that’s become a preoccupation of investors is likely to remain a dominant feature of investment markets for several years at least.