Author Archive | Ashley Owen

Little room for error in equity markets now

Little room for error in equity markets now

Investors are complacent and expect double-digit profit growth to continue for many years, but the market consensus for EPS growth is now in dangerous territory with more downside potential than upside.

South Africa vs Australia

Baggy Green summit was bottom of GFC

After test matches resumed in 1993, Australia held the upper hand and peaked at the bottom of the GFC. In stock markets, South Africa is edging it in US$ terms but killing it in local currencies.

MF-coal-bag

Commodities rebound still running

In the last seven years, commodity prices and the fortunes of many Australian producers went through a boom/bust cycle and are now on a recovery rebound. It’s a volatile ride but a sector worth another look.

asset classes

Asset class performance and lessons in 2017

It’s been a golden period for investing for those willing to take some risk. Australia has experienced six straight years when everything went up, and this has never happened before in history.

company floats

IPOs, information asymmetry and house prices

When it comes to company floats or IPOs, sellers know much more about the business than buyers, so before getting caught up in the euphoria of a new listing, consider what it is they know that you don’t.

PX-cyclists-2604070__340

Stock market winners 10 years on

The intuition is that stock markets should perform in line with an economy’s GDP, but a look at the last decade shows little relationship, and perhaps the opposite is more accurate.

My four enduring investment lessons from the 1987 crash

My four enduring lessons from the 1987 crash

We are not in the heady market conditions of 1987 at the moment, but the biggest problem facing investors will be the urge to panic sell after a major fall, similar to the desire that drives buying at the top.

gold and cash as safe havens

Are bank deposits and gold safe havens?

Continuing our look at ‘safe havens’, gold and bank deposits are often considered alternatives to ‘risky’ shares. How have they performed in times of stress, and do they rate as long-term investments at other times?

shares US stocks

Are shares a long-term safe haven?

The short-term volatility of share prices, and the rapid falls which hit markets every 15 years or so, disguise the wealth creation effects of share investments over a long-term horizon.

bust

US will fall more than Australia in next bust

Amazingly, Australian and US stock markets have delivered the same returns for their home country investors over the very long term. With the recent US strength, it’s more likely to fall further in the next bust.

Korean War

What happened in the last Korean War?

A war between the United States and North Korea is unlikely, but with Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un turning up the rhetoric and mad fingers on the red buttons, anything is possible. What happened last time?